Solvent Streets

Methodology

This section describes the data sources, models, and assumptions behind the analysis presented in each dashboard.

Data sources

Road, parking, and sidewalk geometry. OpenStreetMap via the Overpass API, under the Open Database License (ODbL). When a city has no ArcGIS or local-layer source configured, OSM is the sole source and coverage inherits OSM's gaps — most notably uneven sidewalk tagging and inconsistent classification of alleys and unpaved service roads.
Jurisdictional layers. Optional ArcGIS FeatureService endpoints configured per city in pvmt.toml.
City boundaries. Nominatim lookups or user-supplied GeoJSON, configurable per city.
Initial PCI. A stand-in value supplied through config or the interactive slider. PVMT does not ingest field-measured PCI and makes no claim that the starting condition matches reality — changing this input is the right way to explore sensitivity to unknown starting condition.

The exact sources and endpoints used for a given example are listed in that example's Config tab.

Decay model

Each road classification decays independently via

PCI(t) = PCI₀ · exp(−k · t)

where k is an annual decay constant that depends on the road classification. Higher-class roads (motorway, trunk, primary) decay more slowly than lower-class roads (residential, service) because they are built to thicker, more rigorous design standards and typically receive more frequent maintenance. Default values are derived from LTPP data reported in FHWA-RD-01-156, Long-Term Pavement Performance and ship as part of the forecast package; they are continental-US averages and do not account for local climate, traffic, or construction quality. A config may set a per-city decay_rate to tune for local conditions (e.g. freeze/thaw or road salt); that override is applied as the rate for a typical road and scales every road class proportionally, so the per-class ordering (higher classes decay slower) is preserved rather than flattened. Sidewalks decay on a separate, slower track and are not treated as a highway class.

Cost model

Treatment costs are banded by PCI: each band has a representative $/sq m value, and costs between bands are linearly interpolated at the tier midpoints, so the cost-versus-PCI curve is smooth rather than step-shaped. Above the highest anchor (the midpoint of the preventive tier) and below the lowest anchor (the midpoint of the reconstruction tier), the cost is clamped to that anchor's value rather than extrapolated. Default cost tiers are expressed in $/sq m and sourced from FHWA treatment-selection guidance; they are calibration inputs, not measurements, and local bid prices will differ. Roads and sidewalks use independent cost tiers because the treatment economics differ substantially.

Scenario comparisons

PVMT ships with three comparison runs driven by annual funding level, all using the worst-first allocation strategy (budget is spent on the lowest-PCI segments first):

25% funding — annual spend = 25% of year-1 worst-first need.
50% funding — annual spend = 50% of year-1 worst-first need.
Full funding — unconstrained budget; spend whatever it takes to treat every segment that falls below the worst-first trigger each year.

A do-nothing baseline (no spend, uncontrolled decay) is shown alongside the funded runs for comparison.

The forecast library also implements a preventive-first strategy (prioritize highest-PCI segments that are still in the preservation window), but the default UI comparisons do not exercise it. Preventive vs. worst-first allocation is governed by per-strategy efficiency multipliers; those multipliers are illustrative calibration constants chosen to reflect the direction and sign of the effect reported in FHWA-HIF-12-042, Pavement Preservation: Preserving our Investment — that $1 of preventive maintenance is reported to avoid $6–$10 of future reconstruction — not to reproduce that benefit-cost ratio as a single-year spending efficiency.

Area growth

Optional compound annual growth applies to pavement area each year:

Area(y) = Area₀ · (1 + g)^y

where g is configured per city (default zero). This lets an example model a city that is still expanding its street network; it does not model demolition or removal.

Solvency metrics (streets/roads only)

The dashboard's Financials headline and the cross-city leaderboard report three solvency figures. They are computed on the roads/streets cohort only — the aggregate scenarios blend roads, parking, and sidewalks but cost the blend at road tiers, which would mis-price sidewalks, so an absolute dollar claim must be roads-only. They are derived from a worst-first run at the city's configured annual budget.

Insolvency year — the first forecast year in which the cumulative deferred backlog reaches one full year of network-treatment need (the year-1 need: the cost to treat the entire network once). Because the deferred backlog is a monotonically non-decreasing accumulator (see below), once a city is a whole network-treatment behind it does not recover within the model, so this is the "unrecoverable" threshold. A city whose backlog never reaches it is reported as solvent through the horizon. This is deliberately not "the first year need exceeds spend": year-1 need is the cost to treat the entire network, far above any real budget, so that test trips in year 1 for virtually every city and cannot distinguish a slightly-underfunded city from a badly- underfunded one. Reported only when a current budget is configured.
Hold-steady (break-even) budget — the smallest constant annual budget whose final deferred backlog is within a small relative tolerance (a fraction of year-1 need) of zero. Found by bisection over budget; the search's upper bound is the peak do-nothing annual need over the horizon, which is sufficient to fully fund every year.
Funding gap — (break-even − current budget) / current budget, the primary cross-city ranking metric. Negative when a city already budgets at or above its hold-steady level. Reported only when a current budget is configured.

Three caveats apply to these figures specifically:

The deferred backlog is cumulative unmet need, not a recoverable balance. It only ever grows; spending in a later year reduces new need but never pays down backlog already accrued. Read it as "total treatment value foregone to date," not as a debt that can be cleared.
In the years before the insolvency crossing, the reported annual_spend series can exceed the configured budget. The allocator routes leftover budget on a fully-funded cohort into extra PCI recovery (a surplus branch), and that extra is counted as spend. So an annual_spend above current_budget in early years is expected, not an error.
Break-even assumes the cost-versus-PCI relationship is monotone (true for the default cost tiers: worse pavement costs more to treat). A pathological custom cost_tiers curve that violates this could make the bisection overstate the break-even budget — a conservative direction (it never understates the gap).

Assumptions and limitations

Initial PCI is a user-chosen stand-in, not a field measurement.
Decay-rate defaults are continental-US averages; local climate, traffic, and construction quality shift the true values.
Hex aggregation loses sub-hex heterogeneity — a hex with one badly deteriorated street and three good ones looks like a moderately deteriorated hex.
No network effects are modeled (detours, closures, access externalities, project bundling).
All costs are in today's dollars. No inflation, discounting, or present-value adjustment is applied.
Treatment effectiveness is modeled as an efficiency multiplier on spend, not as a deterministic post-treatment PCI bump.
Output is a planning-grade estimate, not an engineering specification.

References

FHWA-RD-01-156 — Long-Term Pavement Performance, Federal Highway Administration. Source for per-class decay-rate defaults.
FHWA-HIF-12-042 — Pavement Preservation: Preserving our Investment, Federal Highway Administration. Motivates the direction of the preventive-first vs. worst-first efficiency adjustment.
OpenStreetMap contributors — road, parking, and sidewalk geometry (ODbL).
pvmt source — implementation reference. See docs/architecture.md for the ingest and compute pipeline.

Project Configuration

Input Configuration

# Top 50 US Cities — the 50 largest US cities by 2025 population.
#
# A national sample inspired by Ray Delahanty's CityNerd countdowns of
# American urbanism (not affiliated with or endorsed by CityNerd). CityNerd
# typically ranks metropolitan areas; this
# config ranks *jurisdictional cities* — the entities that actually own
# the pavement maintenance liability — because that is what
# solvent-streets ingests (one Nominatim boundary per [[cities]] entry).
# A few CityNerd staples (Boston metro, Atlanta metro, the Twin Cities,
# the DFW combo) therefore appear smaller here than on a metro list.
#
# Source: US Census Bureau, "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population
# for Incorporated Places of 20,000 or More, Ranked by July 1, 2025
# Population" (Vintage 2025, file SUB-IP-EST2025-ANNRNK.xlsx). Retrieved
# 2026-05-24 from:
#   https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2020-2025/cities/totals/SUB-IP-EST2025-ANNRNK.xlsx
#
# Consolidated city-counties (Nashville-Davidson, Indianapolis,
# Louisville/Jefferson) are listed under their common short name so
# Nominatim resolves the city boundary rather than the merged county.
#
# To run:
#   cd examples/top-50-cities
#   pvmt all ingest      # 50 Nominatim + 50 Overpass pulls; takes hours
#   pvmt all compute
#   pvmt serve           # or `make site` from the repo root to publish

# Internal DB scoping key. Kept stable across the display rename so the
# already-ingested 50-city dataset is reused rather than re-fetched.
config_id = "city-nerd"

[grid]
hex_edge_m = 150

[forecast]
years = 20
growth_rate = 0.005  # modest national-average pavement growth

[export]
title = "City Nerd — 50 Largest US Cities"

# Top 50 US cities by population, generated from Census SUB-IP-EST2025-ANNRNK.
# Sorted by 2025 population (descending). Numbers in trailing comment are 2025 pop.

#  1.
[[cities]]
name = "New York, NY"
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 250  # ~8,584,629 residents; large land area

#  2.
[[cities]]
name = "Los Angeles, CA"
#@cite StreetsLA citywide network-average PCI 71
#@cite     https://data.streetsforall.org/blog/repaving/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 71
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~3,869,089 residents; large land area

#  3.
[[cities]]
name = "Chicago, IL"
overpass = true
# 2,731,585 residents

#  4.
[[cities]]
name = "Houston, TX"
#@cite Public Works Pavement Conditions, length-weighted network average, ratings through 2023
#@cite     https://geohub.houstontx.gov/datasets/pavement-conditions (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 66
#@cite FY2025 Street & Traffic Control CIP appropriation (broad capital category, not pavement-only)
#@cite     https://www.houstontx.gov/budget/26budprop/IX_CIP.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 281071000.0
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~2,397,315 residents; large land area

#  5.
[[cities]]
name = "Phoenix, AZ"
#@cite Pavement Maintenance Program ~$90M/yr (gas tax + Transportation 2050)
#@cite     https://www.phoenix.gov/administration/departments/streets/initiatives/pavement-maintenance.html (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 90000000.0
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~1,665,481 residents; large land area

#  6.
[[cities]]
name = "Philadelphia, PA"
#@cite FY2024 ~$30M capital + $30M operating paving; bundles ADA ramp construction
#@cite     https://www.phila.gov/2023-03-02-mayors-capital-budget-proposes-continued-investments-in-better-safer-streets-2/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 60000000.0
overpass = true
# 1,574,281 residents

#  7.
[[cities]]
name = "San Antonio, TX"
#@cite length-weighted average of Weighted PCI over IMP program segments (not full network), 2026
#@cite     https://data.sanantonio.gov/dataset/imp-street (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 71
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~1,548,422 residents; large land area

#  8.
[[cities]]
name = "San Diego, CA"
#@cite San Diego citywide network-average PCI, "Fair" category, 2023 assessment
#@cite     https://www.sandiego.gov/transportation/programs/pavement-management-plan (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 63
#@cite FY2026 road repair $83.1M, 350+ mi resurfacing
#@cite     https://www.sandiego.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025-07-01-city-of-san-diego-marks-completion-of-500-miles-of-road-resurfacing-in-one-year.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 83100000.0
overpass = true
# 1,406,106 residents

#  9.
[[cities]]
name = "Dallas, TX"
overpass = true
# 1,329,491 residents

# 10.
[[cities]]
name = "Fort Worth, TX"
overpass = true
# 1,028,117 residents

# 11.
[[cities]]
name = "Jacksonville, FL"
#@cite FY2025 countywide road resurfacing $22.5M (City of Jacksonville CIP; JaxToday)
#@cite     https://jaxtoday.org/2025/09/26/city-operating-budget/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 22500000.0
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~1,017,689 residents; large land area

# 12.
[[cities]]
name = "Austin, TX"
overpass = true
# 1,002,632 residents

# 13.
[[cities]]
name = "San Jose, CA"
#@cite ~$87M/yr avg over 10 yr, Measures B/T + SB1 pavement maintenance
#@cite     https://www.sanjoseca.gov/Home/Components/News/News/471/4699 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 87000000.0
#@cite MTC 2024 (Pavement Condition of Bay Area Jurisdictions 2024, 3-yr moving avg)
#@cite     https://mtc.ca.gov/digital-library/5099739-pavement-condition-bay-area-jurisdictions-2024 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 73
overpass = true
# 989,814 residents

# 14.
[[cities]]
name = "Charlotte, NC"
#@cite $31M approved resurfacing 200+ roads; bundles asphalt/sidewalk/curb (City of Charlotte; WSOC-TV)
#@cite     https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/map-council-voting-31-million-resurface-hundreds-charlottes-roads/5BQF22PXBNH3VNHHP3YSXDVR74/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 31000000.0
overpass = true
# 964,784 residents

# 15.
[[cities]]
name = "Columbus, OH"
overpass = true
# 938,396 residents

# 16.
[[cities]]
name = "Indianapolis, IN"
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 250  # ~901,116 residents; large land area

# 17.
[[cities]]
name = "San Francisco, CA"
#@cite FY2025-26 roadway repaving program (incl. SB1 state + local bond funds)
#@cite     https://www.sf.gov/news-mayor-lurie-announces-priority-street-repaving-projects/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 90000000.0
#@cite MTC 2024 (Pavement Condition of Bay Area Jurisdictions 2024, 3-yr moving avg)
#@cite     https://mtc.ca.gov/digital-library/5099739-pavement-condition-bay-area-jurisdictions-2024 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 75
overpass = true
# 826,079 residents

# 18.
[[cities]]
name = "Seattle, WA"
#@cite Street Paving & Resurfacing ongoing programs, 2024 SDOT Proposed CIP
#@cite     https://www.seattle.gov/documents/departments/financedepartment/2429proposedcip/sdotcip.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 27400000.0
overpass = true
# 784,777 residents

# 19.
[[cities]]
name = "Denver, CO"
#@cite CAPA 2025 Transportation Infrastructure Summary
#@cite     https://capa.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Transportation%20Infrastructure%20Summary%202025.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 76
#@cite CAPA 2025 annual asphalt program $23,700,000; roads-only
#@cite     https://capa.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Transportation%20Infrastructure%20Summary%202025.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 23700000.0
overpass = true
# Nominatim returns a place=city node (Point geometry) for Denver; the
# admin_level=6 City-and-County boundary lives only as an OSM relation.
boundary_relation_id = 1411339
# 740,613 residents

# 20.
[[cities]]
name = "Nashville, TN"
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~721,074 residents; large land area

# 21.
[[cities]]
name = "Oklahoma City, OK"
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~719,849 residents; large land area

# 22.
[[cities]]
name = "Washington, DC"
overpass = true
# 693,645 residents

# 23.
[[cities]]
name = "El Paso, TX"
#@cite ~$35M/yr avg resurfacing + reconstruction, last 3 years (2025)
#@cite     https://elpasomatters.org/2025/11/15/chris-canales-opinion-el-paso-transportation-user-fee-street-repairs/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 35000000.0
overpass = true
# 683,012 residents

# 24.
[[cities]]
name = "Las Vegas, NV"
overpass = true
# 679,817 residents

# 25.
[[cities]]
name = "Boston, MA"
#@cite Roadway Reconstruction & Resurfacing annual program, FY25-26 planned (capital + grant sources)
#@cite     https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/2025/11/Streets%20Cabinet%20Capital.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 24000000.0
overpass = true
# 672,973 residents

# 26.
[[cities]]
name = "Detroit, MI"
#@cite 2023 Infrastructure Improvement Program road paving (81 miles), single-year program
#@cite     https://detroitmi.gov/news/city-announces-95m-2023-infrastructure-improvement-program-paving-81-miles-roads-and-replacing-70k (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 95000000.0
overpass = true
# 649,095 residents

# 27.
[[cities]]
name = "Louisville, KY"
#@cite FY2025 paving budget, Metro Public Works 3-Year Paving Plan 2025-2027
#@cite     https://louisvilleky.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/fy-25-3-yr-paving-plan-final-20240415.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 30000000.0
overpass = true
hex_edge_m = 300  # ~641,962 residents; large land area

# 28.
[[cities]]
name = "Portland, OR"
#@cite PBOT citywide network PCI 53, Mar 2024 (down from 76 in 2008)
#@cite     https://www.portland.gov/transportation/news/2024/3/1/news-release-pbot-launches-two-week-pothole-march-madness-campaign (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 53
#@cite Fixing Our Streets gas-tax, $70.5M over FY2024-28 (4-yr program), annualized; dedicated program, not full PBOT budget
#@cite     https://www.portland.gov/transportation/fixing-our-streets/projects-2024-2028 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 17625000.0
overpass = true
# 635,109 residents

# 29.
[[cities]]
name = "Memphis, TN"
#@cite FY2027 proposed CIP $20M repaving + pothole repair (City of Memphis; Action News 5)
#@cite     https://www.actionnews5.com/2026/04/22/memphis-mayor-proposes-898-million-budget-with-no-new-tax-increase-2027/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 20000000.0
overpass = true
# 609,647 residents

# 30.
[[cities]]
name = "Baltimore, MD"
#@cite FY2027 proposed resurfacing $22.4M (Baltimore DOT; The Baltimore Banner)
#@cite     https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/local-government/baltimore-brandon-scott-budget-XMWKFU5DRNFUZBCCZXFR66BIY4/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 22400000.0
overpass = true
# 569,997 residents

# 31.
[[cities]]
name = "Milwaukee, WI"
overpass = true
# 562,407 residents

# 32.
[[cities]]
name = "Albuquerque, NM"
overpass = true
# Nominatim returns a place=city node (Point geometry) for ABQ; the
# admin_level=8 boundary lives only as an OSM relation. See
# solvent-streets-95i8.
boundary_relation_id = 171262
# 556,588 residents

# 33.
[[cities]]
name = "Fresno, CA"
#@cite City network PCI 64, 2025 Pavement Management Program Update (Fresno COG) [PCI not byte-verified]
#@cite     https://www.fresnocog.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/PMP25_Fresno-City_Final-Report.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 64
#@cite Existing-budget scenario $119.85M/10yr = $11.99M/yr (Fresno COG 2025 PMP, Table 6)
#@cite     https://www.fresnocog.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/PMP25_Fresno-City_Final-Report.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 11985000.0
overpass = true
# 555,549 residents

# 34.
[[cities]]
name = "Tucson, AZ"
overpass = true
# 548,371 residents

# 35.
[[cities]]
name = "Sacramento, CA"
#@cite Citywide avg PCI 59, 2022 Pavement Condition Update
#@cite     https://www.cityofsacramento.org/public-works/maintenance-services/street-maintenance (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 59
#@cite existing annual pavement M&R budget (Scenario 3 total), STA Regional PMP Final Report, June 2024
#@cite     https://www.sacta.org/files/97648d6b8/STA+Regional+PMP+Final+Report+06182024.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 15120560.0
overpass = true
# 536,449 residents

# 36.
[[cities]]
name = "Atlanta, GA"
overpass = true
# 529,110 residents

# 37.
[[cities]]
name = "Kansas City, MO"
#@cite FY2027 street resurfacing $30.9M + $8.5M amendment = ~$39.4M (KCMO; KCTV5)
#@cite     https://www.kctv5.com/2026/03/24/kansas-city-finance-committee-adds-8m-road-resurfacing-aiming-300-lane-miles-work/ (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 39400000.0
overpass = true
# 521,220 residents

# 38.
[[cities]]
name = "Mesa, AZ"
#@cite Mesa published Streets PCI measure (length-weighted over active segments), surveys through Jan 2025
#@cite     https://data.mesaaz.gov/Transportation/Streets-Pavement-Condition-Index-PCI-/m9e5-yw55 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 81
overpass = true
# 513,656 residents

# 39.
[[cities]]
name = "Raleigh, NC"
#@cite dedicated street-resurfacing capital ~$7.8M/yr, FY2026 budget
#@cite     https://raleighnc.gov/government/news/raleigh-city-council-approves-178b-budget-no-tax-increase-fy-2026 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 7800000.0
overpass = true
# 506,306 residents

# 40.
[[cities]]
name = "Colorado Springs, CO"
#@cite 2C road-improvement program annual revenues; note ~50% funds sidewalks/curbs, not pavement-only (2023)
#@cite     https://coloradosprings.gov/public-works/page/what-2c (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 50000000.0
overpass = true
# 494,743 residents

# 41.
[[cities]]
name = "Miami, FL"
overpass = true
# 489,812 residents

# 42.
[[cities]]
name = "Omaha, NE"
#@cite 2025 resurfacing/repair program $28.6M, 41 projects
#@cite     https://mayors-office.cityofomaha.org/city-news/737-road-repair-projects-planned-in-2025 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 28600000.0
overpass = true
# 488,797 residents

# 43.
[[cities]]
name = "Virginia Beach, VA"
overpass = true
# 453,737 residents

# 44.
[[cities]]
name = "Long Beach, CA"
#@cite Citywide PCI 61, 2025 City Manager memo (longbeach.gov) [PCI not byte-verified]
#@cite     https://www.longbeach.gov/globalassets/city-manager/media-library/documents/memos-to-the-mayor-tabbed-file-list-folders/2025/august-1--2025---city-of-long-beach-updated-pavement-condition-index--pci--score (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 61
#@cite $27.5M arterial + $18M residential street repairs = $45.5M, FY2025 completed
#@cite     https://www.longbeach.gov/globalassets/finance/media-library/documents/city-budget-and-finances/budget/budget-documents/fy-25-adopted-budget/32-public-works (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 45500000.0
overpass = true
# 450,469 residents

# 45.
[[cities]]
name = "Oakland, CA"
#@cite MTC 2024 (Pavement Condition of Bay Area Jurisdictions 2024, 3-yr moving avg)
#@cite     https://mtc.ca.gov/digital-library/5099739-pavement-condition-bay-area-jurisdictions-2024 (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 58
#@cite ~$60M/yr pavement system funding (Measure KK), 2022 5-Year Paving Plan
#@cite     https://www.oaklandca.gov/projects/20225yp (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 60000000.0
overpass = true
# 440,838 residents

# 46.
[[cities]]
name = "Minneapolis, MN"
overpass = true
# 430,324 residents

# 47.
[[cities]]
name = "Bakersfield, CA"
overpass = true
# 422,165 residents

# 48.
[[cities]]
name = "Tulsa, OK"
#@cite assumed arterial street-improvement budget (modeling assumption; arterials only), 2022-2025
#@cite     https://www.cityoftulsa.org/media/7018/pci_presentation.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 20000000.0
overpass = true
# 416,209 residents

# 49.
[[cities]]
name = "Tampa, FL"
#@cite Resurfacing CIP line $4.14M/yr FY2026-FY2029 (FY25-29 CIP; FY2025 was $11.84M)
#@cite     https://www.tampa.gov/sites/default/files/document/2024/summary-cip-fy2025_fy2029_full.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 4140000.0
overpass = true
# 413,554 residents

# 50.
[[cities]]
name = "Aurora, CO"
#@cite CAPA 2025 Transportation Infrastructure Summary
#@cite     https://capa.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Transportation%20Infrastructure%20Summary%202025.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.initial_pci = 73
#@cite CAPA 2025 annual asphalt program $23,000,000; roads-only
#@cite     https://capa.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Transportation%20Infrastructure%20Summary%202025.pdf (accessed 2026-06-14)
forecast.current_budget = 23000000.0
overpass = true
# 410,053 residents

Effective configuration (with defaults)

[grid]
  hex_edge_m = 150.0

[display]
  units = "imperial"
  min_hex_area = 100.0

[export]
  title = "City Nerd — 50 Largest US Cities"
  coordinate_decimals = 0

[forecast]
  initial_pci = 85.0
  decay_rate = 0.035
  growth_rate = 0.005
  years = 20

  [[forecast.cost_tiers]]
    min_pci = 70.0
    max_pci = 101.0
    cost_per_sqm = 5.0
    label = "preventive"

  [[forecast.cost_tiers]]
    min_pci = 40.0
    max_pci = 70.0
    cost_per_sqm = 50.0
    label = "rehab"

  [[forecast.cost_tiers]]
    min_pci = 0.0
    max_pci = 40.0
    cost_per_sqm = 150.0
    label = "reconstruction"

[[cities]]
  name = "New York, NY"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 250.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Los Angeles, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 71.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0

[[cities]]
  name = "Chicago, IL"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Houston, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 66.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.81071e+08

[[cities]]
  name = "Phoenix, AZ"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 9e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Philadelphia, PA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 6e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "San Antonio, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 71.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0

[[cities]]
  name = "San Diego, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 63.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 8.31e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Dallas, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Fort Worth, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Jacksonville, FL"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.25e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Austin, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "San Jose, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 73.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 8.7e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Charlotte, NC"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 3.1e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Columbus, OH"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Indianapolis, IN"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 250.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "San Francisco, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 75.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 9e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Seattle, WA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.74e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Denver, CO"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 1411339
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 76.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.37e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Nashville, TN"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Oklahoma City, OK"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Washington, DC"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "El Paso, TX"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 3.5e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Las Vegas, NV"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Boston, MA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.4e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Detroit, MI"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 9.5e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Louisville, KY"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 300.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 3e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Portland, OR"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 53.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 1.7625e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Memphis, TN"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Baltimore, MD"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.24e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Milwaukee, WI"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Albuquerque, NM"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 171262
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Fresno, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 64.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 1.1985e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Tucson, AZ"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Sacramento, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 59.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 1.512056e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Atlanta, GA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Kansas City, MO"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 3.94e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Mesa, AZ"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 81.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0

[[cities]]
  name = "Raleigh, NC"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 7.8e+06

[[cities]]
  name = "Colorado Springs, CO"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 5e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Miami, FL"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Omaha, NE"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.86e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Virginia Beach, VA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Long Beach, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 61.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 4.55e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Oakland, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 58.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 6e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Minneapolis, MN"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Bakersfield, CA"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false

[[cities]]
  name = "Tulsa, OK"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2e+07

[[cities]]
  name = "Tampa, FL"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 0.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 4.14e+06

[[cities]]
  name = "Aurora, CO"
  overpass = true
  arcgis_url = ""
  hex_edge_m = 0.0
  boundary_relation_id = 0
  allow_private_arcgis = false
  [cities.forecast]
    initial_pci = 73.0
    decay_rate = 0.0
    growth_rate = 0.0
    years = 0
    current_budget = 2.3e+07

City Nerd — 50 Largest US Cities

City Summary

roads

parking

sidewalks

Interactive Forecast

Road Classification Breakdown

Methodology

Data sources

Decay model

Cost model

Scenario comparisons

Area growth

Solvency metrics (streets/roads only)

Assumptions and limitations

References

Project Configuration

Input Configuration

Effective configuration (with defaults)

City Showdown

Category Leaderboards

Infrastructure Breakdown

Road Network Composition

20-Year Cost Trajectory

Year 1 vs Year 20 Maintenance Need

Region Rollup

Region Cost Trajectory

Region Deferred Backlog

Infrastructure Mix

Per-City Contribution